Predictions for the New Year

Happy New Year!!!Prediction

Well, almost…still a couple of weeks before we start…sorry to our southern neighbors who are already back :-)

Andy Carvin posted his Back to School: Five Predictions… today, and encouraged others to do the same, so here we go. I’ll start by briefly commenting on his five predictions:

1. The Cell Phone Wars Will Heat Up Across the Country Until a Number of Parents and School Board Members Spontaneously Combust

  • Agreed, but only if you “pick this battle.” Let the phones in, but keep them off. Kids need to keep in touch after school, etc. A phone that is on during the day should be taken away until the end of the day. More of an issue here may be – how do you model non-cell phone use when staff members are seen routinely using them?

2. MySpace Loses It-Girl Status To Some Upstart Punk

  • Way agreed on this one – the MySpace attention only taught teens to NEVER mention the sites they use.

3. Cyberbullying Gets Worse Before It Gets Better

  • Neutral – I’m not sure if the amount will get worse, or just the realization of how bad it is. Our school has been much more concerned and focused on this issue, since it is something much more likely to have happen to a student than a threat from a predator (of course we deal with the predator issue as well).

4. Moodle’s Meteoric Rise Become a Hurtling Asteroid

  • Neutral – Moodle is awesome, and will surely continue to grow. Bigger question – will Blackboard take the low road with its new patent on LMS and go after Moolde (and all the others) for infringement somehow?

5. Vlogging Becomes the New Podcasting

  • Agreed – video is finally getting hot – easy tools have been around for enough years now that we have reached that tipping point, I believe. Storytelling in the digital age is so awesome – give the kids the tools, and stay out of their way!!! (but continue to guide them…)

So, for my predictions…

1. Web 2.0 will be understood by the masses. Things take time to “filter down.” DOPA will give the great new tools attention (albeit negative), but will bring the conversation to everyone’s breakfast and dinner tables. We’ll have to use whatever publicity we can get, and then take the teachable moment to show the power of the tools.

2. Video, in all its forms, will be hot (see above #5).

3. As much as we want to take 10 giant steps ahead in educational technology – we won’t. This is not meant to be a cold water item – just a mental note that we will feel the hurt of the 9 steps we don’t succeed in more than the joy of the one step we do. We have to go for the 10, or more, but also have to be our own best cheerleaders no matter what.

Thanks, Andy, for your post – it got some juices going!

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